Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 30.836603 33.097019 35.554668 38.446506 41.784479 45.552385 50.180204
2025-11-02 27.571087 30.597291 34.099159 38.525741 44.087732 51.018888 60.620932
2025-11-09 25.059377 28.316766 32.218373 37.359457 44.163968 53.210715 66.865393
2025-11-16 23.138412 26.481822 30.586591 36.163777 43.845160 54.601803 72.071036
2025-11-23 22.332629 25.911738 30.425307 36.771189 45.921687 59.563385 83.910804
2025-11-30 21.403330 25.090129 29.835234 36.686689 46.937789 63.046958 94.355842
2025-12-07 20.484681 24.207565 29.076987 36.260582 47.342271 65.563715 103.854414
2025-12-14 19.248819 22.833291 27.557486 34.598764 45.623683 64.166631 104.757749
2025-12-21 18.729373 22.382116 27.268906 34.703016 46.699241 67.848821 118.476308
2025-12-28 18.358571 22.105603 27.196453 35.108704 48.296267 72.799450 138.114780
2026-01-04 17.646687 21.326681 26.364282 34.277252 47.682965 73.280851 145.709501
2026-01-11 17.416759 21.200005 26.455955 34.887347 49.650072 79.491192 176.044681
2026-01-18 17.134540 21.067963 26.648481 35.878011 52.856317 90.416120 245.826926
2026-01-25 16.612299 20.579234 26.296443 35.975365 54.489614 98.681846 333.842848
2026-02-01 15.872845 19.733406 25.339362 34.938174 53.658931 100.142271 388.463413
2026-02-08 15.190971 18.939124 24.414559 33.875538 52.620792 100.724703 445.317540
2026-02-15 14.933435 18.749666 24.408912 34.415895 55.070894 113.041818 799.855296
2026-02-22 14.561801 18.371783 24.080768 34.340770 56.152452 121.719268 1533.408773
2026-03-01 14.154503 17.922098 23.611408 33.961678 56.469772 127.974721 3736.524310
2026-03-08 13.546084 17.149287 22.588678 32.479451 53.968645 122.081556 3394.122161
2026-03-15 13.295041 16.906192 22.410133 32.572614 55.300689 132.875270 NaN
2026-03-22 13.112376 16.758157 22.376195 32.934924 57.374718 148.984173 NaN
2026-03-29 12.730467 16.292065 21.796616 32.191987 56.483029 150.036192 NaN